EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 15 · 19:00 · Reading vs Brentford
Likeliest: Brentford win · 75%
A tight one: we make it 75% for the away win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reading8%11%−2
OursMarket
Draw17%17%−1
OursMarket
Brentford75%72%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 28% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 13% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reading
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 12 · at Cambridge United (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Blackpool (H)3-1
- Sep 2 · v Mansfield Town (H)5-0
- Aug 25 · at Stevenage (A)3-0
- Aug 22 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)0-0
Brentford
WinWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Birmingham City (A)6-1
- Aug 22 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Reading | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.