League One (England) · Wed, Oct 21 · 19:00 · Reading vs Leyton Orient
Likeliest: Reading win · 59%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reading59%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Leyton Orient18%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 60% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reading
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Wigan Athletic (A)0-1
- Oct 13 · v Chelsea U21 (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)5-1
- Oct 3 · v Bradford City (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)2-2
Leyton Orient
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Blackpool (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at Bradford City (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · v Stevenage (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Arsenal U21 (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Reading | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.