League One (England) · Sat, Aug 15 · 11:30 · Reading vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Reading win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 29%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reading39%29%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%27%0
OursMarket
Luton Town34%44%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 56% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 71% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 40% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reading
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 8 · at Bromley (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Blackpool (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Rotherham United (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Cardiff City (H)1-3
- Apr 11 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)0-1
Luton Town
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Aug 8 · at Gillingham (A)3-0
- May 2 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Barnsley (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Rotherham United (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Reading | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.