Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Thu, Feb 5 · 20:00 · Real Betis vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 28%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis42%28%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid34%45%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 52% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 55% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 72% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 39% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinLossLossWinWin
- Feb 1 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Jan 29 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Jan 22 · at PAOK (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
Atlético Madrid
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Jan 31 · at Levante (A)0-0
- Jan 28 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
- Jan 21 · at Galatasaray (A)1-1
- Jan 18 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.