La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:30 · Real Betis vs Barcelona
Likeliest: Barcelona win · 73%
Likely score: 1–2
A 73% away win. The market says 68%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis12%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Barcelona73%68%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 32% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 19% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 14 · v FC Porto (H)3-2
- Oct 11 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Villarreal (A)2-1
Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 13 · at Galatasaray (A)4-1
- Oct 10 · v Getafe (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Sep 16 · v Racing de Santander (H)7-2
- Sep 13 · at Levante UD (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 10-0-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.