La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 15 · 17:30 · Real Betis vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 28%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis37%43%−6
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo39%28%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 72% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 61% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Mar 12 · at Panathinaikos (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · at Getafe (A)0-2
- Mar 1 · v Sevilla (H)2-2
- Feb 21 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
Celta de Vigo
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Mar 12 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-1
- Mar 6 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at Girona (A)2-1
- Feb 26 · v PAOK (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.