Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Wed, Jan 14 · 20:00 · Real Betis vs Elche
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis54%57%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Elche21%19%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 81% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 43% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 76% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Jan 10 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Real Madrid (A)1-5
- Dec 21 · v Getafe (H)4-0
- Dec 18 · at Real Murcia (A)2-0
- Dec 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
Elche
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Jan 10 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Jan 3 · v Villarreal (H)1-3
- Dec 21 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-0
- Dec 16 · at SD Eibar (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Mallorca (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.