La Liga (Spain) · Tue, May 12 · 18:00 · Real Betis vs Elche
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 52%
A 23% away win. The market says 19%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis52%59%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Elche23%19%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 41% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 76% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- May 9 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-2
- May 3 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- Apr 24 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Girona (A)3-2
- Apr 16 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-4
Elche
WinWinWinLossDraw
- May 9 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- May 3 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-3
- Apr 26 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Apr 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
- Apr 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.