La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 6 · 17:30 · Real Betis vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 46%
A 31% home win. The market says 24%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis31%24%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+1
OursMarket
FC Barcelona46%54%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 70% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 30% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Dec 3 · at Torrent (A)4-1
- Nov 30 · at Sevilla (A)2-0
- Nov 27 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Nov 9 · at Valencia (A)1-1
FC Barcelona
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-1
- Nov 25 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Athletic Club (H)4-0
- Nov 9 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.