Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 14 · 19:00 · Real Betis vs FC Porto
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Porto30%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Villarreal (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Lille (A)3-2
FC Porto
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Marítimo (A)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Benfica (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Casa Pia (A)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Manchester City (H)0-2
- Sep 4 · v Moreirense (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.