La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 21 · 20:00 · Real Betis vs Getafe
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 53%
We make it 45% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis53%55%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Getafe20%17%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 76% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Dec 18 · at Real Murcia (A)2-0
- Dec 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Dinamo Zagreb (A)3-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-5
- Dec 3 · at Torrent (A)4-1
Getafe
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 18 · at Burgos (A)1-3
- Dec 13 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Villarreal (A)0-2
- Nov 28 · v Elche (H)1-0
- Nov 23 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.