La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 23 · 15:15 · Real Betis vs Girona
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 64%
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis64%63%+1
OursMarket
Draw19%21%−2
OursMarket
Girona17%16%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 37% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 80% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 9 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Nov 6 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-0
- Nov 2 · v Mallorca (H)3-0
- Oct 30 · at Palma del Río (A)7-1
- Oct 27 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
Girona
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Nov 8 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
- Oct 31 · at Getafe (A)1-2
- Oct 25 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-3
- Oct 18 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Valencia (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.