La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Real Betis vs Levante
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 51%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis51%43%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−5
OursMarket
Levante26%29%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 57% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 57% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 60% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- May 17 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- May 12 · v Elche (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-2
- May 3 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- Apr 24 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
Levante
DrawLossWinWinWin
- May 17 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- May 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-2
- May 8 · v Osasuna (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- Apr 27 · at Espanyol (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.