La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 11 · 16:30 · Real Betis vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis61%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Osasuna16%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- Sep 17 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Villarreal (A)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Lille (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v Real Madrid (H)1-0
Osasuna
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-4
- Sep 12 · v Espanyol (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-5
- Aug 31 · v Getafe (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.