La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 21 · 15:15 · Real Betis vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 48%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis48%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−3
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano28%23%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 68% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 15 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-5
- Feb 1 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Jan 29 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
Rayo Vallecano
LossLossLossLossWin
- Feb 15 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-0
- Feb 1 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
- Jan 24 · v Osasuna (H)1-3
- Jan 18 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-3
- Jan 14 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.