La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Apr 24 · 19:00 · Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 39%
A 37% home win. The market says 26%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis37%26%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Real Madrid39%51%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 63% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 74% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 34% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Apr 21 · at Girona (A)3-2
- Apr 16 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-4
- Apr 12 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Apr 8 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-1
- Apr 4 · v Espanyol (H)0-0
Real Madrid
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Apr 21 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Apr 15 · at FC Bayern München (A)3-4
- Apr 10 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Apr 7 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Mallorca (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.