La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Sep 4 · 19:00 · Real Betis vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 45%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis32%12%+20
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Real Madrid45%69%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 70% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 31% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 88% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 15% | +26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 29 · at Levante UD (A)2-5
- Aug 25 · at Valencia (A)1-0
- Aug 21 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-0
- May 23 · v Levante (H)2-1
- May 17 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
Real Madrid
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 30 · v Málaga (H)4-0
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)4-1
- Aug 22 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- May 23 · v Athletic Club (H)4-2
- May 17 · at Sevilla (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.