La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 3 · 16:30 · Real Betis vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 51%
A 26% away win. The market says 16%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis51%60%−10
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Real Oviedo26%16%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 84% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 79% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Apr 24 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Girona (A)3-2
- Apr 16 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-4
- Apr 12 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Apr 8 · at Sporting Braga (A)1-1
Real Oviedo
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 26 · v Elche (H)1-2
- Apr 23 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-0
- Apr 5 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Levante (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.