La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Aug 21 · 19:00 · Real Betis vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 46%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis63%46%+17
OursMarket
Draw19%28%−9
OursMarket
Real Sociedad18%26%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 47% | +24 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 53% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 74% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 54% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 72% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 64% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinDrawWinLossWin
- May 23 · v Levante (H)2-1
- May 17 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- May 12 · v Elche (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-2
- May 3 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
Real Sociedad
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- May 23 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Valencia (H)3-4
- May 14 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 9 · v Real Betis (H)2-2
- May 4 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.