La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 1 · 17:30 · Real Betis vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 44%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis44%53%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Sevilla32%22%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 48% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 78% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 47% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 71% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Feb 21 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Mallorca (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-0
- Feb 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-5
- Feb 1 · v Valencia (H)2-1
Sevilla
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Feb 22 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Feb 14 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Feb 2 · at Mallorca (A)1-4
- Jan 24 · v Athletic Club (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.