La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 1 · 15:15 · Real Betis vs Valencia
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 45%
A 30% away win. The market says 22%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis45%51%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Valencia30%22%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 78% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 49% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 70% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinWinLossLossWin
- Jan 29 · v Feyenoord (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-2
- Jan 22 · at PAOK (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
- Jan 14 · v Elche (H)2-1
Valencia
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Jan 24 · v Espanyol (H)3-2
- Jan 18 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Jan 15 · at Burgos (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v Elche (H)1-1
- Jan 3 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.