La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 17 · 20:00 · Real Betis vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 37%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Betis48%37%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Villarreal28%36%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 64% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 63% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 51% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Betis
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Jan 14 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at Real Oviedo (A)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Real Madrid (A)1-5
- Dec 21 · v Getafe (H)4-0
- Dec 18 · at Real Murcia (A)2-0
Villarreal
LossLossLossWinWin
- Jan 10 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-1
- Jan 3 · at Elche (A)3-1
- Dec 21 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Dec 17 · at Racing Santander (A)1-2
- Dec 10 · v FC København (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Real Betis | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.