UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 2 · 18:00 · Real Madrid vs Ajax
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 64%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid64%79%−14
OursMarket
Draw19%13%+6
OursMarket
Ajax17%8%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 68% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 44% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 92% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 21% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 87% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 91% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
Win
- Aug 26 · at Ajax (A)2-0
Ajax
WinWinLoss
- Aug 26 · v Real Madrid (H)0-2
- Aug 8 · v Rangers LFC (H)2-1
- Aug 5 · v Brøndby IF (H)2-0