La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 23 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 69%
A 69% home win. The market says 64%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid69%64%+5
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Athletic Club12%16%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 63% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 80% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
DrawWinLossWinWin
- May 17 · at Sevilla (A)1-0
- May 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
- May 10 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
- May 3 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
Athletic Club
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- May 17 · v Juventude (H)1-1
- May 17 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
- May 13 · at Espanyol (A)0-2
- May 12 · at Internacional (A)2-3
- May 10 · v Valencia (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-4-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.