La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 8 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Real Madrid50%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWinWinLossWin
- Feb 5 · at Leganés (A)3-2
- Feb 1 · at Espanyol (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · at Brest (A)3-0
- Jan 25 · at Real Valladolid (A)3-0
- Jan 22 · v Salzburg (H)5-1
Atlético Madrid
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 4 · v Getafe (H)5-0
- Feb 1 · v Mallorca (H)2-0
- Jan 29 · at Salzburg (A)4-1
- Jan 25 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-1 | 7-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 88% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 56% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.