Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Mar 4 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Real Madrid50%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 1 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Feb 26 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Feb 23 · v Girona (H)2-0
- Feb 19 · v Manchester City (H)3-1
- Feb 15 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
Atlético Madrid
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Mar 1 · v Athletic Club (H)1-0
- Feb 25 · at FC Barcelona (A)4-4
- Feb 22 · at Valencia (A)3-0
- Feb 15 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
- Feb 8 · at Real Madrid (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 4-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.