La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 22 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 47%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid51%47%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid26%28%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 63% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
LossWinWinWinWin
- Mar 17 · at Manchester City (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Elche (H)4-1
- Mar 11 · v Manchester City (H)3-0
- Mar 6 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Mar 2 · v Getafe (H)0-1
Atlético Madrid
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Mar 18 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Mar 10 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)5-2
- Mar 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)3-2
- Mar 3 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.