La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Dec 7 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 72%
We make it 37% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 30%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid72%75%−3
OursMarket
Draw18%16%+2
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo11%10%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 70% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 90% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 25% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 84% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 88% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Dec 3 · at Athletic Club (A)3-0
- Nov 30 · at Girona (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)4-3
- Nov 23 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
Celta de Vigo
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 30 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
- Nov 27 · at Ludogorets (A)2-3
- Nov 22 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-0
- Nov 9 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-4
- Nov 6 · at Dinamo Zagreb (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.