La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Apr 21 · 19:30 · Real Madrid vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 55%
A 21% away win. The market says 9%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid55%76%−21
OursMarket
Draw24%15%+9
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés21%9%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 66% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 91% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 24% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 85% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 90% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Apr 15 · at FC Bayern München (A)3-4
- Apr 10 · v Girona (H)1-1
- Apr 7 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Mallorca (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
Deportivo Alavés
LossDrawWinDrawDraw
- Apr 11 · at Real Sociedad (A)3-3
- Apr 5 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Valencia (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.