La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 14 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Elche
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 64%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 52%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid64%76%−12
OursMarket
Draw19%15%+4
OursMarket
Elche17%9%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 52% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 91% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 24% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 85% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 89% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
LossWinLossWinWin
- Mar 11 · v Manchester City (H)3-0
- Mar 6 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
- Mar 2 · v Getafe (H)0-1
- Feb 25 · v Benfica (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · at Osasuna (A)1-2
Elche
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Mar 8 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Espanyol (H)2-2
- Feb 20 · at Athletic Club (A)1-2
- Feb 13 · v Osasuna (H)0-0
- Feb 7 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.