La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 23 · 15:15 · Real Madrid vs Girona
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 66%
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Real Madrid66%——
OursMarket
Draw21%——
OursMarket
Girona13%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Feb 19 · v Manchester City (H)3-1
- Feb 15 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
- Feb 11 · at Manchester City (A)3-2
- Feb 8 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-1
- Feb 5 · at Leganés (A)3-2
Girona
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 14 · v Getafe (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
- Feb 3 · v Las Palmas (H)2-1
- Jan 29 · v Arsenal (H)1-2
- Jan 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.