La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Apr 10 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs Girona
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 56%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid56%72%−17
OursMarket
Draw23%16%+7
OursMarket
Girona21%11%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 67% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 89% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 28% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 84% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 86% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 7 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-2
- Apr 4 · at Mallorca (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
- Mar 17 · at Manchester City (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · v Elche (H)4-1
Girona
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Apr 6 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Osasuna (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · v Athletic Club (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.