La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Aug 30 · 15:00 · Real Madrid vs Málaga
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 55%
A 25% draw. The market says 10%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid55%85%−30
OursMarket
Draw25%10%+15
OursMarket
Málaga20%5%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 72% | −27 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 95% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 15% | +30 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 90% | −15 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 95% | −22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)4-1
- Aug 22 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- May 23 · v Athletic Club (H)4-2
- May 17 · at Sevilla (A)1-0
- May 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
Málaga
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Aug 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
- Jun 20 · at Almería (A)2-1
- Jun 14 · v Almería (H)0-0
- Jun 10 · v Las Palmas (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.