UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 22 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs PSG
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 50%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid62%50%+12
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−3
OursMarket
PSG18%26%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 65% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 74% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 50% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 65% | +12 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWin
- Sep 2 · v Ajax (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Ajax (A)2-0
PSG
DrawDraw
- Sep 2 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Aug 26 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)1-1