La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 1 · 13:00 · Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 64%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid64%77%−13
OursMarket
Draw20%15%+5
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano17%8%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 51% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 92% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 23% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 85% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 90% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 28 · at Benfica (A)2-4
- Jan 24 · at Villarreal (A)2-0
- Jan 20 · v Monaco (H)6-1
- Jan 17 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Jan 14 · at Albacete (A)2-3
Rayo Vallecano
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Jan 24 · v Osasuna (H)1-3
- Jan 18 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-3
- Jan 14 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-2
- Jan 11 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Jan 6 · at Granada (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.