La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 12 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 89%
A tight one: we make it 89% for the home win. The market says 86%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid89%86%+3
OursMarket
Draw7%10%−3
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano4%5%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 11% | 14% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 93% | 90% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 96% | 95% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 8 · v Inter Milan (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Málaga (H)4-0
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)4-1
- Aug 22 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
Rayo Vallecano
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Racing de Santander (H)3-2
- Aug 31 · at Barcelona (A)2-5
- Aug 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- May 27 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.