Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 21 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 78%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 78% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid78%74%+4
OursMarket
Draw14%15%−2
OursMarket
RB Leipzig9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Sevilla (H)4-1
- Oct 14 · at Roma (A)4-3
- Oct 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Atletico Madrid (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Elche (A)3-2
RB Leipzig
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-6
- Oct 13 · v PSV Eindhoven (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
- Sep 20 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Hamburger SV (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.