La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 4 · 15:15 · Real Madrid vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 64%
We make it 40% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid64%64%0
OursMarket
Draw21%20%+1
OursMarket
Real Betis15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 36% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 80% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
LossLossWinWinWin
- Dec 20 · v Sevilla (H)2-0
- Dec 17 · at Talavera CF (A)3-2
- Dec 14 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- Dec 10 · v Manchester City (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
Real Betis
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Dec 21 · v Getafe (H)4-0
- Dec 18 · at Real Murcia (A)2-0
- Dec 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Dinamo Zagreb (A)3-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Barcelona (H)3-5
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 6-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.