La Liga (Spain) · Thu, May 14 · 19:30 · Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 64%
A 21% draw. The market says 15%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid64%75%−11
OursMarket
Draw21%15%+6
OursMarket
Real Oviedo15%9%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 64% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 91% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 25% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 85% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 89% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- May 10 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
- May 3 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)2-1
- Apr 15 · at FC Bayern München (A)3-4
Real Oviedo
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- May 10 · v Getafe (H)0-0
- May 3 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
- Apr 26 · v Elche (H)1-2
- Apr 23 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.