La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 14 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 52%
A 24% away win. The market says 13%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid52%68%−16
OursMarket
Draw24%18%+6
OursMarket
Real Sociedad24%13%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 87% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 32% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 82% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 84% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 8 · at Valencia (A)2-0
- Feb 1 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- Jan 28 · at Benfica (A)2-4
- Jan 24 · at Villarreal (A)2-0
- Jan 20 · v Monaco (H)6-1
Real Sociedad
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Feb 11 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- Feb 7 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Feb 4 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)3-2
- Feb 1 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.