La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Aug 26 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 71%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid71%70%+2
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Real Sociedad12%12%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 64% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 88% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 85% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
LossWinWinWinWin
- Aug 22 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- May 23 · v Athletic Club (H)4-2
- May 17 · at Sevilla (A)1-0
- May 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
- May 10 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
Real Sociedad
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Aug 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Valencia (H)3-4
- May 14 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 9 · v Real Betis (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 0-6-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.