La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 20 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 69%
We make it 39% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 29%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid69%77%−8
OursMarket
Draw18%14%+4
OursMarket
Sevilla13%8%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 71% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 92% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 23% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 86% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 90% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinLossLossWinWin
- Dec 17 · at Talavera CF (A)3-2
- Dec 14 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- Dec 10 · v Manchester City (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-2
- Dec 3 · at Athletic Club (A)3-0
Sevilla
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 17 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-0
- Dec 7 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · at Extremadura 1924 (A)2-1
- Nov 30 · v Real Betis (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.