La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 18 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 80%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid80%77%+3
OursMarket
Draw12%14%−2
OursMarket
Sevilla8%9%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 71% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 91% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 14 · at Roma (A)4-3
- Oct 10 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Atletico Madrid (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-1
Sevilla
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 12 · at Levante UD (A)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Barcelona (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.