La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Nov 1 · 20:00 · Real Madrid vs Valencia
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Real Madrid59%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
Valencia20%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 26 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Oct 22 · v Juventus (H)1-0
- Oct 19 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Villarreal (H)3-1
- Sep 30 · at Kairat (A)5-0
Valencia
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 28 · at Maracena (A)5-0
- Oct 25 · v Villarreal (H)0-2
- Oct 20 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Girona (A)1-2
- Sep 29 · v Real Oviedo (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.