La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Oct 10 · 19:00 · Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 74%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Madrid74%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw15%16%−1
OursMarket
Villarreal11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 74% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Madrid
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Atletico Madrid (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-1
- Sep 8 · v Inter Milan (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
Villarreal
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 20 · v Levante UD (H)3-1
- Sep 17 · at Málaga (A)3-1
- Sep 14 · v Real Betis (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.