La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 20 · 13:00 · Real Oviedo vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 47%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo31%27%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo47%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 42% | +16 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 38% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Dec 14 · at Sevilla (A)0-4
- Dec 5 · v Mallorca (H)0-0
- Nov 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-2
- Nov 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-0
- Nov 9 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
Celta de Vigo
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Dec 17 · at Albacete (A)2-2
- Dec 14 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Dec 11 · v Bologna (H)1-2
- Dec 7 · at Real Madrid (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · v Espanyol (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.