La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Real Oviedo vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Deportivo Alavés win · 36%
A 36% home win. The market says 25%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo36%25%+11
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés36%48%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 51% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 55% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 52% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 75% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 34% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- May 14 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- May 10 · v Getafe (H)0-0
- May 3 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
- Apr 26 · v Elche (H)1-2
- Apr 23 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
Deportivo Alavés
LossWinLossDrawWin
- May 13 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-0
- May 9 · at Elche (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Athletic Club (H)2-4
- Apr 25 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Real Madrid (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.