La Liga 2 (Spain) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:30 · Real Oviedo vs Eibar
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo40%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Eibar28%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 2 · at CD Eldense (A)1-4
- Sep 27 · v Sporting Gijón (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at CE Sabadell (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Real Valladolid (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)0-0
Eibar
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Albacete Balompié (A)3-1
- Sep 27 · v Las Palmas (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · at CD Eldense (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Celta Vigo B (A)4-0
- Sep 6 · v Granada (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.