La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Apr 26 · 14:15 · Real Oviedo vs Elche
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo41%41%0
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Elche33%31%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 23 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-0
- Apr 5 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Levante (A)2-4
- Mar 14 · v Valencia (H)1-0
Elche
LossWinLossWinWin
- Apr 22 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
- Apr 11 · v Valencia (H)1-0
- Apr 3 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.