La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 10 · 16:30 · Real Oviedo vs Getafe
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 35%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo40%35%+5
OursMarket
Draw28%31%−4
OursMarket
Getafe32%34%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 50% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- May 3 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
- Apr 26 · v Elche (H)1-2
- Apr 23 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-0
- Apr 5 · v Sevilla (H)1-0
Getafe
WinLossWinLossLoss
- May 3 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-2
- Apr 22 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-0
- Apr 13 · at Levante (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.